As of June 7, 2025, Medallia Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $33.99, this represents a potential upside of -208.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -210.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -208.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $477 million in 01-2021 to $1440 million by 01-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | 477 | 19% |
| 01-2022 | 576 | 21% |
| 01-2023 | 695 | 21% |
| 01-2024 | 854 | 23% |
| 01-2025 | 925 | 8% |
| 01-2026 | 1008 | 9% |
| 01-2027 | 1084 | 7% |
| 01-2028 | 1160 | 7% |
| 01-2029 | 1241 | 7% |
| 01-2030 | 1334 | 8% |
| 01-2031 | 1440 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -31% in 01-2021 to -21% by 01-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2021 | (149) | -31% |
| 01-2022 | (167) | -29% |
| 01-2023 | (190) | -27% |
| 01-2024 | (219) | -26% |
| 01-2025 | (224) | -24% |
| 01-2026 | (229) | -23% |
| 01-2027 | (243) | -22% |
| 01-2028 | (257) | -22% |
| 01-2029 | (272) | -22% |
| 01-2030 | (289) | -22% |
| 01-2031 | (308) | -21% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2022 | 27 |
| 01-2023 | 29 |
| 01-2024 | 38 |
| 01-2025 | 47 |
| 01-2026 | 57 |
| 01-2027 | 64 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 133 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 13 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | (65) | (1) | 20 | 17 | (101) |
| 2023 | (148) | (3) | 49 | 47 | (241) |
| 2024 | (165) | (3) | 60 | 55 | (277) |
| 2025 | (159) | (3) | 65 | 26 | (247) |
| 2026 | (153) | (3) | 71 | 32 | (252) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -210.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -208.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Medallia Inc (MDLA) a buy or a sell? Medallia Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Medallia Inc (MDLA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -208.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $33.99.