What is MDG1.DE's Intrinsic value?

Medigene AG (MDG1.DE) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Medigene AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.59 to $2.59 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $2.59 +1841.0%

Is Medigene AG (MDG1.DE) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.13, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Medigene AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.8% 3.3%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.24 0.47
Cost of equity 5.0% 7.7%
Cost of debt 6.8% 7.0%
Tax rate 2.2% 2.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.07 1.07
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.2%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $3M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.2% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $38M - $46M
Net Debt $(11)M
Equity Value $49M - $58M
Outstanding Shares 21M
Fair Value $2 - $3
Selected Fair Value $2.59

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3M
Enterprise Value $-9M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.45
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.26
Weighted Average 100% $2.59

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Medigene AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.59, which is approximately 1841.0% above the current market price of $0.13.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-268% to -261% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Medigene AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.