As of May 25, 2025, MongoDB Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $185.85, this represents a potential upside of -137.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -136.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -137.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 10.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2006 million in 01-2025 to $8060 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 2006 | 19% |
| 01-2026 | 2116 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 2628 | 24% |
| 01-2028 | 3270 | 24% |
| 01-2029 | 3882 | 19% |
| 01-2030 | 4544 | 17% |
| 01-2031 | 5292 | 16% |
| 01-2032 | 5940 | 12% |
| 01-2033 | 6656 | 12% |
| 01-2034 | 7346 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 8060 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6% in 01-2025 to 0% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | (129) | -6% |
| 01-2026 | (108) | -5% |
| 01-2027 | (102) | -4% |
| 01-2028 | (88) | -3% |
| 01-2029 | (61) | -2% |
| 01-2030 | (23) | -1% |
| 01-2031 | (16) | 0% |
| 01-2032 | (7) | 0% |
| 01-2033 | 6 | 0% |
| 01-2034 | 21 | 0% |
| 01-2035 | 39 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $13 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 15 |
| 01-2027 | 19 |
| 01-2028 | 24 |
| 01-2029 | 31 |
| 01-2030 | 35 |
| 01-2031 | 42 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 74 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 8 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | (188) | (2) | 22 | 37 | (245) |
| 2027 | (200) | (2) | 28 | 87 | (313) |
| 2028 | (209) | (2) | 35 | 129 | (371) |
| 2029 | (201) | (1) | 41 | 124 | (364) |
| 2030 | (187) | (0) | 48 | 125 | (360) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -136.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -137.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is MongoDB Inc (MDB) a buy or a sell? MongoDB Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, MongoDB Inc (MDB) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -137.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $185.85.