As of June 6, 2025, Monarch Cement Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $154.56 to $318.36 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $318.36 | +28.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $296.10 | +19.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $154.56 | -37.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $156.22 | -36.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $193.45 | -21.8% |
Is Monarch Cement Co (MCEM) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $247.50, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Monarch Cement Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.25 | 1.66 |
| Cost of equity | 9.6% | 14.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 21.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.6% | 8.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $296 | $713M | 69.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $318 | $770M | 50.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $323 | $782M | 71.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $349 | $850M | 55.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $34M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.8% - 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $384M - $516M |
| Net Debt | $(46)M |
| Equity Value | $430M - $562M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $168 - $219 |
| Selected Fair Value | $193.45 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $634M |
| Enterprise Value | $588M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.17 |
| Forward P/E | 11.94 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.85 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 284.22% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 21.99% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.07 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $95.51 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $74.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $30.91 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $23.43 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $19.34 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $243.22 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Monarch Cement Co's weighted average intrinsic value is $243.22, which is approximately 1.7% below the current market price of $247.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Monarch Cement Co is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.