As of February 9, 2026, Mcdonald's Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $325.79 per share. With the current market price at $327.16, this represents a potential upside of -0.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $318.32 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $325.79 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -0.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $25920 million in 12-2024 to $36024 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 25920 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 26456 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 28460 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 29416 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 30958 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 31813 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 32450 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 33127 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 34626 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 35318 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 36024 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 32% in 12-2024 to 35% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 8224 | 32% |
| 12-2025 | 8576 | 32% |
| 12-2026 | 9417 | 33% |
| 12-2027 | 9928 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 10649 | 34% |
| 12-2029 | 11145 | 35% |
| 12-2030 | 11368 | 35% |
| 12-2031 | 11605 | 35% |
| 12-2032 | 12130 | 35% |
| 12-2033 | 12373 | 35% |
| 12-2034 | 12620 | 35% |
with a 5-year average of $2142 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2296 |
| 12-2026 | 2405 |
| 12-2027 | 2560 |
| 12-2028 | 2652 |
| 12-2029 | 2676 |
| 12-2030 | 2785 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 2 |
| Days Payables | 35 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 3590 | 553 | 601 | 9 | 2427 |
| 2026 | 15626 | 2429 | 2588 | 158 | 10451 |
| 2027 | 16470 | 2560 | 2675 | 62 | 11172 |
| 2028 | 17542 | 2746 | 2815 | 110 | 11870 |
| 2029 | 18231 | 2874 | 2893 | 77 | 12387 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 318.32 | -2.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 325.79 | -0.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 310.39 | -5.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 317.73 | -2.9% |
Is Mcdonald's Corp (MCD) a buy or a sell? Mcdonald's Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Mcdonald's Corp (MCD) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -0.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $327.16.