As of May 23, 2025, Moelis & Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $25.53 to $110.73 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $110.73 | +95.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $83.63 | +47.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $44.38 | -21.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $26.04 | -54.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $25.53 | -54.9% |
Is Moelis & Co (MC) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $56.57, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Moelis & Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1 | 1.25 |
| Cost of equity | 8.5% | 11.9% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.2% | 7.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $84 | $6,154M | 85.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $111 | $8,281M | 74.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $57 | $4,068M | 77.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $78 | $5,710M | 63.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $111M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.9% - 6.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,404M - $1,781M |
| Net Debt | $(412)M |
| Equity Value | $1,816M - $2,193M |
| Outstanding Shares | 79M |
| Fair Value | $23 - $28 |
| Selected Fair Value | $25.53 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4441M |
| Enterprise Value | $4029M |
| Trailing P/E | 32.65 |
| Forward P/E | 23.85 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 11.60 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 381.60% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -10.18% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.84 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $33.22 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $20.91 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $8.88 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.91 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.55 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $69.46 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Moelis & Co's weighted average intrinsic value is $69.46, which is approximately 22.8% above the current market price of $56.57.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Moelis & Co is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.