As of May 23, 2025, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $485.11 per share. With the current market price at $485.10, this represents a potential upside of -16.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $403.76 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $485.11 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -16.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 0.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $84683 million in 12-2024 to $176252 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 84683 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 89418 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 97808 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 103759 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 113103 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 121221 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 132118 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 141554 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 151352 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 161749 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 176252 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 12-2024 to 16% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 12958 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 14029 | 16% |
| 12-2026 | 15345 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 16278 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 17744 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 19018 | 16% |
| 12-2030 | 20728 | 16% |
| 12-2031 | 22208 | 16% |
| 12-2032 | 23745 | 16% |
| 12-2033 | 25376 | 16% |
| 12-2034 | 27652 | 16% |
with a 5-year average of $4714 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 5355 |
| 12-2026 | 6063 |
| 12-2027 | 6362 |
| 12-2028 | 6235 |
| 12-2029 | 6662 |
| 12-2030 | 7204 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 20 |
| Days Inventory | 306 |
| Days Payables | 121 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25238 | 5099 | 5670 | 45 | 14423 |
| 2026 | 27811 | 5578 | 6202 | 2371 | 13661 |
| 2027 | 29434 | 5917 | 6579 | 1398 | 15539 |
| 2028 | 31384 | 6450 | 7172 | 1891 | 15871 |
| 2029 | 33616 | 6913 | 7687 | 1976 | 17041 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 403.76 | -16.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 485.11 | 0.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 471.29 | -2.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 550.62 | 13.5% |
Is LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC.PA) a buy or a sell? LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC.PA) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of -16.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $485.10.