As of May 29, 2025, Microbix Biosystems Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.16 to $1.28 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1.28 | +270.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $0.95 | +174.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $0.91 | +163.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $0.35 | +2.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $0.16 | -53.9% |
Is Microbix Biosystems Inc (MBX.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $0.34, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Microbix Biosystems Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.58 |
| Cost of equity | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 2.5% | 4.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.1% | 7.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1 | $127M | 85.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1 | $174M | 72.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1 | $106M | 83.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1 | $135M | 65.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $13M - $19M |
| Net Debt | $(7)M |
| Equity Value | $20M - $25M |
| Outstanding Shares | 141M |
| Fair Value | $0 - $0 |
| Selected Fair Value | $0.16 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $49M |
| Enterprise Value | $42M |
| Trailing P/E | 25.32 |
| Forward P/E | 12.27 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.13 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.38 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.24 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.18 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.05 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.02 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $0.87 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Microbix Biosystems Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.87, which is approximately 152.2% above the current market price of $0.34.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Microbix Biosystems Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.