As of June 29, 2025, Marie Brizard Wine and Spirits SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.02 to $3.52 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $2.15 | -30.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $2.18 | -29.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $2.12 | -31.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $3.52 | +14.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $2.02 | -34.3% |
Is Marie Brizard Wine and Spirits SA (MBWS.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3.07, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Marie Brizard Wine and Spirits SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.43 |
| Cost of equity | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 17.9% | 27.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.3% | 6.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $2 | $195M | 84.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $2 | $192M | 71.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $2 | $163M | 81.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $2 | $165M | 67.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $11M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 5.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $155M - $200M |
| Net Debt | $(48)M |
| Equity Value | $203M - $249M |
| Outstanding Shares | 112M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $2.02 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $344M |
| Enterprise Value | $295M |
| Trailing P/E | 35.65 |
| Forward P/E | 36.76 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 33.49% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -14.23% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.02 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.64 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.54 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.42 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.53 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.20 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $2.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Marie Brizard Wine and Spirits SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.34, which is approximately 23.7% below the current market price of $3.07.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Marie Brizard Wine and Spirits SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.