What is MAXF.ST's Intrinsic value?

MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB (MAXF.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $47.15 to $125.67 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $125.67 +150.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $75.59 +50.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $76.73 +52.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $47.15 -6.1%

Is MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB (MAXF.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $50.20, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.3% 2.8%
Equity market risk premium 4.7% 5.7%
Adjusted beta 0.77 1.16
Cost of equity 6.0% 10.0%
Cost of debt 4.0% 6.4%
Tax rate 17.1% 18.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.56 1.56
After-tax WACC 4.4% 7.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $187 (FY12-2020) to $492 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 48% to 52%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $76 $3,368M 80.8%
10-Year Growth $126 $4,452M 66.8%
5-Year EBITDA $84 $3,557M 81.8%
10-Year EBITDA $137 $4,689M 68.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $76.73 (52.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.0% (Low) to 6.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $26 to $68
  • Selected fair value: $47.15 (-6.1% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1086M
Enterprise Value $2819M
Trailing P/E 13.40
Forward P/E 9.93
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.55
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.56

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 33% $37.70
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 28% $18.90
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 22% $15.35
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 17% $7.07
Weighted Average 100% $87.80

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $87.80, which is approximately 74.9% above the current market price of $50.20.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (48% to 52% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe MaxFastigheter i Sverige AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.