As of May 29, 2025, Petro Matad Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.08, this represents a potential upside of -4001150.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -145184.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4001150.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 6.4% |
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 0 | 75% |
| 12-2024 | 2 | 467% |
| 12-2025 | 14 | 602% |
| 12-2026 | 25 | 78% |
| 12-2027 | 64 | 156% |
| 12-2028 | 153 | 140% |
| 12-2029 | 341 | 123% |
| 12-2030 | 721 | 111% |
| 12-2031 | 1444 | 100% |
| 12-2032 | 2756 | 91% |
| 12-2033 | 5014 | 82% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1688% in 12-2023 to -1368% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (6) | -1688% |
| 12-2024 | (27) | -1368% |
| 12-2025 | (191) | -1368% |
| 12-2026 | (340) | -1368% |
| 12-2027 | (872) | -1368% |
| 12-2028 | (2,091) | -1368% |
| 12-2029 | (4,669) | -1368% |
| 12-2030 | (9,865) | -1368% |
| 12-2031 | (19,749) | -1368% |
| 12-2032 | (37,691) | -1368% |
| 12-2033 | (68,571) | -1368% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 36% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 8 |
| 12-2028 | 19 |
| 12-2029 | 44 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 1,785 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (17) | (3) | 0 | 5 | (19) |
| 2025 | (235) | (45) | 5 | 79 | (274) |
| 2026 | (417) | (80) | 9 | 15 | (361) |
| 2027 | (1,069) | (205) | 23 | 224 | (1,112) |
| 2028 | (2,563) | (491) | 56 | 472 | (2,600) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -145184.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -4001150.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Petro Matad Ltd (MATD.L) a buy or a sell? Petro Matad Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Petro Matad Ltd (MATD.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -4001150.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.08.