As of April 4, 2026, Manchester United PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $17.22, this represents a potential upside of -222.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -222.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -222.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 8.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $667 million in 06-2025 to $1140 million by 06-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 667 | 1% |
| 06-2026 | 667 | 0% |
| 06-2027 | 783 | 18% |
| 06-2028 | 842 | 7% |
| 06-2029 | 887 | 5% |
| 06-2030 | 936 | 5% |
| 06-2031 | 964 | 3% |
| 06-2032 | 999 | 4% |
| 06-2033 | 1055 | 6% |
| 06-2034 | 1117 | 6% |
| 06-2035 | 1140 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5% in 06-2025 to -5% by 06-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2025 | (33) | -5% |
| 06-2026 | (33) | -5% |
| 06-2027 | (39) | -5% |
| 06-2028 | (42) | -5% |
| 06-2029 | (44) | -5% |
| 06-2030 | (46) | -5% |
| 06-2031 | (48) | -5% |
| 06-2032 | (49) | -5% |
| 06-2033 | (52) | -5% |
| 06-2034 | (55) | -5% |
| 06-2035 | (56) | -5% |
with a 5-year average of $194 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 31% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2026 | 207 |
| 06-2027 | 232 |
| 06-2028 | 250 |
| 06-2029 | 264 |
| 06-2030 | 258 |
| 06-2031 | 277 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2026 | 88 | (3) | 105 | (32) | 19 |
| 2027 | 195 | (8) | 246 | 28 | (71) |
| 2028 | 210 | (8) | 264 | 24 | (69) |
| 2029 | 222 | (9) | 279 | (5) | (42) |
| 2030 | 214 | (9) | 294 | 13 | (83) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -222.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -222.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.77 | -95.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Manchester United PLC (MANU) a buy or a sell? Manchester United PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Manchester United PLC (MANU) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -222.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $17.22.