As of June 12, 2025, Magnet Forensics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $7.23 per share. With the current market price at $44.24, this represents a potential upside of -83.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $2.57 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $7.23 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -94.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -83.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $99 million in 12-2022 to $751 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 99 | 41% |
| 12-2023 | 128 | 29% |
| 12-2024 | 165 | 29% |
| 12-2025 | 217 | 32% |
| 12-2026 | 270 | 24% |
| 12-2027 | 339 | 25% |
| 12-2028 | 404 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 481 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 565 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 656 | 16% |
| 12-2032 | 751 | 15% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2022 to 6% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 4 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 6 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 8 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 11 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 14 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 18 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 22 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 26 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 31 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 37 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 42 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 2 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
| 12-2027 | 7 |
| 12-2028 | 8 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 86 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 10 | (6) |
| 2024 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 11 | (6) |
| 2025 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 9 | (2) |
| 2026 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 14 | (4) |
| 2027 | 31 | 7 | 10 | 17 | (3) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 2.57 | -94.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.23 | -83.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.44 | -62.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 25.97 | -41.3% |
Is Magnet Forensics Inc (MAGT.TO) a buy or a sell? Magnet Forensics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Magnet Forensics Inc (MAGT.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -83.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $44.24.