As of May 23, 2025, Macerich Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $12.92 per share. With the current market price at $15.22, this represents a potential upside of -15.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $13.32 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $12.92 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -12.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -15.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $918 million in 12-2024 to $1115 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 918 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 939 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 938 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 904 | -4% |
| 12-2028 | 923 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 941 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1003 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 1038 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 1064 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 1085 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1115 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -22% in 12-2024 to -9% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (198) | -22% |
| 12-2025 | (180) | -19% |
| 12-2026 | (159) | -17% |
| 12-2027 | (135) | -15% |
| 12-2028 | (119) | -13% |
| 12-2029 | (104) | -11% |
| 12-2030 | (107) | -11% |
| 12-2031 | (107) | -10% |
| 12-2032 | (106) | -10% |
| 12-2033 | (104) | -10% |
| 12-2034 | (103) | -9% |
with a 5-year average of $96 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 112 |
| 12-2026 | 126 |
| 12-2027 | 130 |
| 12-2028 | 126 |
| 12-2029 | 101 |
| 12-2030 | 102 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 73 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 268 | (1) | 76 | 23 | 169 |
| 2026 | 392 | (1) | 102 | (6) | 297 |
| 2027 | 406 | (1) | 98 | (12) | 321 |
| 2028 | 426 | (1) | 100 | 9 | 317 |
| 2029 | 424 | (1) | 102 | 2 | 321 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.32 | -12.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 12.92 | -15.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.36 | -84.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.94 | -74.1% |
Is Macerich Co (MAC) a buy or a sell? Macerich Co is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Macerich Co (MAC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -15.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $15.22.