As of September 9, 2025, Live Nation Entertainment Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $334.10 per share. With the current market price at $169.40, this represents a potential upside of 97.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $207.34 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $334.10 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 22.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 97.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $23156 million in 12-2024 to $70877 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 23156 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 24077 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 29667 | 23% |
| 12-2027 | 35391 | 19% |
| 12-2028 | 41338 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 47465 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 52667 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 57400 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 61906 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 66240 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 70877 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1131 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 902 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 1448 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 2122 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 2930 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 3872 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 4296 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 4682 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 5050 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 5403 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 5781 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $373 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 536 |
| 12-2026 | 760 |
| 12-2027 | 994 |
| 12-2028 | 1256 |
| 12-2029 | 1534 |
| 12-2030 | 1780 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 52 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 922 | 106 | 519 | 6 | 291 |
| 2026 | 2787 | 340 | 1278 | 117 | 1051 |
| 2027 | 3899 | 498 | 1525 | (66) | 1942 |
| 2028 | 5206 | 688 | 1781 | 50 | 2687 |
| 2029 | 6696 | 909 | 2045 | 83 | 3659 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 207.34 | 22.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 334.10 | 97.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 295.33 | 74.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 423.69 | 150.1% |
Is Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV) a buy or a sell? Live Nation Entertainment Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 97.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $169.40.