As of May 29, 2025, Las Vegas Sands Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $72.80 per share. With the current market price at $40.61, this represents a potential upside of 79.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $51.50 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $72.80 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 26.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 79.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $11298 million in 12-2024 to $21123 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 11298 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 10928 | -3% |
| 12-2026 | 11671 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 12478 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 13611 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 14930 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 16261 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 17589 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 19258 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 20274 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 21123 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 16% in 12-2024 to 16% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1752 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 1695 | 16% |
| 12-2026 | 1810 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 1935 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 2111 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 2315 | 16% |
| 12-2030 | 2522 | 16% |
| 12-2031 | 2727 | 16% |
| 12-2032 | 2986 | 16% |
| 12-2033 | 3144 | 16% |
| 12-2034 | 3276 | 16% |
with a 5-year average of $1137 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 21% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1357 |
| 12-2026 | 1687 |
| 12-2027 | 2064 |
| 12-2028 | 2393 |
| 12-2029 | 2714 |
| 12-2030 | 2941 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 18 |
| Days Inventory | 3 |
| Days Payables | 12 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 2768 | 151 | 1748 | 86 | 783 |
| 2026 | 4179 | 215 | 2489 | (30) | 1505 |
| 2027 | 4728 | 230 | 2661 | 20 | 1817 |
| 2028 | 5299 | 251 | 2903 | 63 | 2082 |
| 2029 | 5901 | 275 | 3184 | 28 | 2414 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 51.50 | 26.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 72.80 | 79.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 44.87 | 10.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 62.64 | 54.2% |
Is Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) a buy or a sell? Las Vegas Sands Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 79.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $40.61.