As of May 23, 2025, Luceco PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $168.74 per share. With the current market price at $154.00, this represents a potential upside of 9.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $154.69 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $168.74 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 0.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 9.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $242 million in 12-2024 to $398 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 242 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 266 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 277 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 290 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 300 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 313 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 326 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 343 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 360 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 378 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 398 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 15 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 18 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 19 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 19 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 20 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 21 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 22 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 23 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 24 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 26 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 7 |
| 12-2026 | 8 |
| 12-2027 | 8 |
| 12-2028 | 9 |
| 12-2029 | 9 |
| 12-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 99 |
| Days Inventory | 126 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33 | 4 | 8 | (3) | 24 |
| 2026 | 34 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 15 |
| 2027 | 36 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 2028 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 23 |
| 2029 | 39 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 19 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 154.69 | 0.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 168.74 | 9.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 120.80 | -21.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 145.48 | -5.5% |
Is Luceco PLC (LUCE.L) a buy or a sell? Luceco PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Luceco PLC (LUCE.L) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 9.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $154.00.