As of May 22, 2025, Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.26, this represents a potential upside of -186148.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -153589.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -186148.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.3% - 7.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1835 million in 12-2024 to $4540 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1835 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 1934 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 2154 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 2463 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 2755 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 3066 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 3370 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 3596 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 3892 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 4209 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 4540 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -36% in 12-2024 to -27% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (661) | -36% |
| 12-2025 | (542) | -28% |
| 12-2026 | (598) | -28% |
| 12-2027 | (677) | -27% |
| 12-2028 | (750) | -27% |
| 12-2029 | (827) | -27% |
| 12-2030 | (908) | -27% |
| 12-2031 | (967) | -27% |
| 12-2032 | (1,045) | -27% |
| 12-2033 | (1,128) | -27% |
| 12-2034 | (1,215) | -27% |
with a 5-year average of $60 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 70 |
| 12-2026 | 82 |
| 12-2027 | 97 |
| 12-2028 | 113 |
| 12-2029 | 131 |
| 12-2030 | 146 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 44 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 282 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (551) | (96) | 102 | 226 | (784) |
| 2026 | (603) | (105) | 114 | (29) | (582) |
| 2027 | (678) | (119) | 130 | (24) | (665) |
| 2028 | (745) | (132) | 145 | 73 | (831) |
| 2029 | (816) | (146) | 162 | 7 | (838) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -153589.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -186148.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings Inc (LTRPA) a buy or a sell? Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings Inc (LTRPA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -186148.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.26.