As of May 22, 2025, Learning Technologies Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $92.14 per share. With the current market price at $99.90, this represents a potential upside of -7.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $53.87 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $92.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -46.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -7.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $562 million in 12-2023 to $948 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 562 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 490 | -13% |
| 12-2025 | 496 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 511 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 590 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 668 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 730 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 796 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 850 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 903 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 948 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2023 to 6% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 33 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 28 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 29 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 30 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 34 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 39 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 42 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 46 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 49 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 52 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 55 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 12 |
| 12-2025 | 14 |
| 12-2026 | 16 |
| 12-2027 | 17 |
| 12-2028 | 19 |
| 12-2029 | 21 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 142 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 31 | 6 | 9 | 38 | (21) |
| 2025 | 65 | 11 | 17 | (36) | 72 |
| 2026 | 69 | 12 | 18 | 7 | 32 |
| 2027 | 79 | 14 | 21 | 38 | 6 |
| 2028 | 89 | 15 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 53.87 | -46.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 92.14 | -7.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 90.39 | -9.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 108.36 | 8.5% |
Is Learning Technologies Group PLC (LTG.L) a buy or a sell? Learning Technologies Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Learning Technologies Group PLC (LTG.L) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -7.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $99.90.