What is LTE.V's Intrinsic value?

Lite Access Technologies Inc (LTE.V) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 12, 2025, Lite Access Technologies Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.02 to $0.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $0.11 +19.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $0.02 -76.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.02 -74.9%

Is Lite Access Technologies Inc (LTE.V) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.10, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Lite Access Technologies Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.44
Cost of equity 5.5% 7.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.08 0.08
After-tax WACC 5.3% 7.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5 (FY09-2024) to $6 (FY09-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -13% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $0 $1M 110.9%
10-Year Growth $0 $9M 88.6%
5-Year EBITDA $0 $0M 417.2%
10-Year EBITDA $0 $1M 24.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $0.02 (-74.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.6% (Low) to 5.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(0) to $(0)
  • Selected fair value: $-0.28 (-390.1% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $8M
Enterprise Value $8M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.80
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 40% $0.03
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 33% $0.01
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 27% $0.00
Weighted Average 100% $0.06

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Lite Access Technologies Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.06, which is approximately 37.9% below the current market price of $0.10.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-13% to 6% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.08)

Given these factors, we believe Lite Access Technologies Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.