As of May 25, 2025, Lightspeed POS Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $14.48, this represents a potential upside of -501.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -424.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -501.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $909 million in 03-2024 to $6156 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 21.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 909 | 24% |
| 03-2025 | 1101 | 21% |
| 03-2026 | 1459 | 33% |
| 03-2027 | 1871 | 28% |
| 03-2028 | 2385 | 27% |
| 03-2029 | 2894 | 21% |
| 03-2030 | 3495 | 21% |
| 03-2031 | 4086 | 17% |
| 03-2032 | 4783 | 17% |
| 03-2033 | 5453 | 14% |
| 03-2034 | 6156 | 13% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -18% in 03-2024 to -2% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (164) | -18% |
| 03-2025 | (155) | -14% |
| 03-2026 | (168) | -11% |
| 03-2027 | (169) | -9% |
| 03-2028 | (158) | -7% |
| 03-2029 | (127) | -4% |
| 03-2030 | (139) | -4% |
| 03-2031 | (145) | -4% |
| 03-2032 | (150) | -3% |
| 03-2033 | (148) | -3% |
| 03-2034 | (142) | -2% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 13 |
| 03-2026 | 18 |
| 03-2027 | 23 |
| 03-2028 | 30 |
| 03-2029 | 37 |
| 03-2030 | 46 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 21 |
| Days Inventory | 11 |
| Days Payables | 36 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | (50) | (2) | 5 | (5) | (48) |
| 2026 | (224) | (8) | 28 | 28 | (272) |
| 2027 | (239) | (8) | 36 | 18 | (284) |
| 2028 | (245) | (7) | 45 | 12 | (295) |
| 2029 | (229) | (6) | 55 | 28 | (306) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -424.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -501.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD.TO) a buy or a sell? Lightspeed POS Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -501.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $14.48.