As of May 22, 2025, Lowell Farms Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.01, this represents a potential upside of -247558.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -230979.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -247558.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 8.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $28 million in 12-2023 to $34 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 28 | 35% |
| 12-2024 | 16 | -45% |
| 12-2025 | 18 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 20 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 22 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 23 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 25 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 26 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 29 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 31 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 34 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -132% in 12-2023 to -97% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (37) | -132% |
| 12-2024 | (19) | -124% |
| 12-2025 | (21) | -118% |
| 12-2026 | (23) | -113% |
| 12-2027 | (23) | -107% |
| 12-2028 | (23) | -102% |
| 12-2029 | (25) | -101% |
| 12-2030 | (26) | -100% |
| 12-2031 | (28) | -99% |
| 12-2032 | (31) | -98% |
| 12-2033 | (33) | -97% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 3 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 42 |
| Days Inventory | 77 |
| Days Payables | 28 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | (4) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (4) |
| 2025 | (16) | (0) | 2 | (0) | (18) |
| 2026 | (18) | (0) | 2 | (0) | (20) |
| 2027 | (19) | (0) | 3 | 1 | (22) |
| 2028 | (18) | (0) | 3 | (0) | (20) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -230979.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -247558.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Lowell Farms Inc (LOWL.CN) a buy or a sell? Lowell Farms Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Lowell Farms Inc (LOWL.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -247558.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.01.