What is LOVE.CN's DCF valuation?

Cannara Biotech Inc (LOVE.CN) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Cannara Biotech Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.12, this represents a potential upside of -381.7%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -370.5%
Potential Upside (10-year) -381.7%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 9.2%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $3 million in 08-2020 to $4 million by 08-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.9%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
08-2020 3 23%
08-2021 3 5%
08-2022 3 3%
08-2023 3 3%
08-2024 3 2%
08-2025 3 4%
08-2026 3 4%
08-2027 3 5%
08-2028 3 2%
08-2029 4 4%
08-2030 4 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -508% in 08-2020 to -366% by 08-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
08-2020 (13) -508%
08-2021 (10) -372%
08-2022 (10) -371%
08-2023 (11) -369%
08-2024 (11) -368%
08-2025 (11) -367%
08-2026 (12) -367%
08-2027 (12) -367%
08-2028 (13) -367%
08-2029 (13) -367%
08-2030 (13) -366%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 446% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
08-2021 9
08-2022 11
08-2023 14
08-2024 12
08-2025 13
08-2026 13

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 10
Days Inventory 355
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
9M/2021 (3) (3) 9 (1) (8)
2022 (2) (4) 12 0 (11)
2023 1 (4) 13 0 (8)
2024 (1) (4) 13 (0) (10)
2025 (1) (4) 14 0 (11)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.4% - 9.2%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 14.5x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -370.5%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -381.7%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(230)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(240)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Cannara Biotech Inc (LOVE.CN) a buy or a sell? Cannara Biotech Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Cannara Biotech Inc (LOVE.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -381.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -508% to -366%)
  • Steady revenue growth (2.9% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.12.