What is LOOK.L's Intrinsic value?

Lookers PLC (LOOK.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 18, 2025, Lookers PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $110.46 to $1230.40 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $284.44 +119.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $223.03 +71.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $117.53 -9.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $110.46 -14.9%
Earnings Power Value $1230.40 +847.9%

Is Lookers PLC (LOOK.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $129.80, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Lookers PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.21 1.46
Cost of equity 11.2% 15.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.7%
Tax rate 18.3% 26.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.09 1.09
After-tax WACC 7.1% 9.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $4,301 (FY12-2022) to $6,520 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 2% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $223 $907M 70.8%
10-Year Growth $284 $1,145M 53.7%
5-Year EBITDA $171 $706M 62.6%
10-Year EBITDA $220 $896M 40.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 18.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 13.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $117.53 (-9.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 15.2% (Low) to 11.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $76 to $145
  • Selected fair value: $110.46 (-14.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $390M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.5% - 7.1%
Enterprise Value $4,115M - $5,510M
Net Debt $42M
Equity Value $4,073M - $5,468M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $1,051 - $1,410
Selected Fair Value $1230.40

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $503M
Enterprise Value $545M
Trailing P/E 7.88
Forward P/E 7.16
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.60
Current Dividend Yield 230.51%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -3.19%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $85.33
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $55.76
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $23.51
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $16.57
Earnings Power Value 10% $123.04
Weighted Average 100% $304.21

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Lookers PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $304.21, which is approximately 134.4% above the current market price of $129.80.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (2% to 2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Lookers PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.