What is LMAT's Intrinsic value?

LeMaitre Vascular Inc (LMAT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, LeMaitre Vascular Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $21.01 to $235.75 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $111.20 +36.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $85.61 +5.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $85.21 +4.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $235.75 +189.6%
Earnings Power Value $21.01 -74.2%

Is LeMaitre Vascular Inc (LMAT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $81.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate LeMaitre Vascular Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.68
Cost of equity 5.4% 8.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 22.4% 23.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.09 0.09
After-tax WACC 5.3% 8.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $220 (FY12-2024) to $540 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 20% to 26%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $86 $2,077M 88.7%
10-Year Growth $111 $2,655M 79.7%
5-Year EBITDA $65 $1,621M 85.5%
10-Year EBITDA $88 $2,141M 74.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 33.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $85.21 (4.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.7% (Low) to 5.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $25 to $447
  • Selected fair value: $235.75 (189.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $40M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.3% - 5.3%
Enterprise Value $481M - $753M
Net Debt $143M
Equity Value $338M - $611M
Outstanding Shares 23M
Fair Value $15 - $27
Selected Fair Value $21.01

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1839M
Enterprise Value $1981M
Trailing P/E 40.72
Forward P/E 35.16
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.75
Current Dividend Yield 83.24%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 16.90%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $33.36
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $21.40
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $17.04
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $35.36
Earnings Power Value 10% $2.10
Weighted Average 100% $109.27

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, LeMaitre Vascular Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $109.27, which is approximately 34.2% above the current market price of $81.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (20% to 26% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.09)
  • Historical dividend growth of 16.90%

Given these factors, we believe LeMaitre Vascular Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.