As of June 4, 2025, Eli Lilly and Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $701.14 per share. With the current market price at $750.78, this represents a potential upside of -6.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $548.21 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $701.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -27.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -6.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $45043 million in 12-2024 to $113327 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 45043 | 32% |
| 12-2025 | 50532 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 56622 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 62607 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 68450 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 74468 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 81293 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 88573 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 96170 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 104849 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 113327 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 24% in 12-2024 to 28% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 10590 | 24% |
| 12-2025 | 12592 | 25% |
| 12-2026 | 14540 | 26% |
| 12-2027 | 16529 | 26% |
| 12-2028 | 18542 | 27% |
| 12-2029 | 20658 | 28% |
| 12-2030 | 22652 | 28% |
| 12-2031 | 24789 | 28% |
| 12-2032 | 27032 | 28% |
| 12-2033 | 29597 | 28% |
| 12-2034 | 32125 | 28% |
with a 5-year average of $4436 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 5322 |
| 12-2026 | 6395 |
| 12-2027 | 7499 |
| 12-2028 | 7770 |
| 12-2029 | 7993 |
| 12-2030 | 8779 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 92 |
| Days Inventory | 288 |
| Days Payables | 127 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 15566 | 1580 | 4844 | 952 | 8191 |
| 2026 | 24190 | 2432 | 7237 | 2220 | 12302 |
| 2027 | 27703 | 2765 | 8002 | 1554 | 15383 |
| 2028 | 30408 | 3101 | 8749 | 1620 | 16938 |
| 2029 | 33188 | 3455 | 9518 | 1765 | 18450 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 548.21 | -27.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 701.14 | -6.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 196.90 | -73.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 299.57 | -60.1% |
Is Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) a buy or a sell? Eli Lilly and Co is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -6.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $750.78.