As of April 24, 2026, Eli Lilly and Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $937.49 per share. With the current market price at $917.65, this represents a potential upside of 2.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $759.54 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $937.49 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -17.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 2.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $65179 million in 12-2025 to $141785 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 65179 | 45% |
| 12-2026 | 68275 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 76041 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 83772 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 92062 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 101185 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 110773 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 116683 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 122813 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 128954 | 5% |
| 12-2035 | 141785 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 32% in 12-2025 to 37% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 20640 | 32% |
| 12-2026 | 22993 | 34% |
| 12-2027 | 26120 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 29311 | 35% |
| 12-2029 | 32771 | 36% |
| 12-2030 | 36602 | 36% |
| 12-2031 | 40191 | 36% |
| 12-2032 | 42462 | 36% |
| 12-2033 | 44825 | 36% |
| 12-2034 | 47203 | 37% |
| 12-2035 | 52049 | 37% |
with a 5-year average of $6301 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 7948 |
| 12-2027 | 9603 |
| 12-2028 | 10605 |
| 12-2029 | 11651 |
| 12-2030 | 12478 |
| 12-2031 | 13737 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 95 |
| Days Inventory | 360 |
| Days Payables | 151 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36153 | 4539 | 10110 | (1,984) | 23487 |
| 2027 | 41628 | 5156 | 11260 | 2749 | 22464 |
| 2028 | 46528 | 5786 | 12405 | 3156 | 25181 |
| 2029 | 51798 | 6469 | 13632 | 1831 | 29865 |
| 2030 | 57301 | 7225 | 14983 | 2919 | 32174 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 759.54 | -17.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 937.49 | 2.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 396.85 | -56.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 535.41 | -41.7% |
Is Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) a buy or a sell? Eli Lilly and Co is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 2.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $917.65.