As of May 27, 2025, Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.84, this represents a potential upside of -9037227.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -9126248.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -9037227.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 6.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $905 million in 12-2023 to $898 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -0.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 905 | 19% |
| 12-2024 | 708 | -22% |
| 12-2025 | 723 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 749 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 765 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 786 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 802 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 818 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 834 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 860 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 898 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -11% in 12-2023 to -3% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (103) | -11% |
| 12-2024 | (51) | -7% |
| 12-2025 | (44) | -6% |
| 12-2026 | (38) | -5% |
| 12-2027 | (31) | -4% |
| 12-2028 | (24) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (25) | -3% |
| 12-2030 | (25) | -3% |
| 12-2031 | (26) | -3% |
| 12-2032 | (27) | -3% |
| 12-2033 | (28) | -3% |
with a 5-year average of $19 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 17 |
| 12-2025 | 17 |
| 12-2026 | 15 |
| 12-2027 | 14 |
| 12-2028 | 13 |
| 12-2029 | 13 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 156 |
| Days Payables | 33 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2024 | (36) | (8) | 9 | (36) | (2) |
| 2025 | (41) | (9) | 13 | 10 | (55) |
| 2026 | (35) | (8) | 13 | (4) | (37) |
| 2027 | (29) | (7) | 13 | 1 | (37) |
| 2028 | (21) | (5) | 14 | 3 | (33) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -9126248.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -9037227.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (LL) a buy or a sell? Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (LL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -9037227.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.84.