What is LFI.L's Intrinsic value?

London Finance & Investment Group PLC (LFI.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 31, 2025, London Finance & Investment Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $115.15 to $318.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $318.72 +355.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $272.66 +289.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $115.15 +64.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $117.65 +68.1%
Earnings Power Value $122.48 +75.0%

Is London Finance & Investment Group PLC (LFI.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $70.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate London Finance & Investment Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.68 0.97
Cost of equity 8.1% 11.8%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 16.7% 21.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.7% 7.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5 (FY06-2024) to $8 (FY06-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 90% to 77%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $273 $63M 76.6%
10-Year Growth $319 $77M 60.5%
5-Year EBITDA $225 $48M 69.4%
10-Year EBITDA $273 $63M 51.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 9.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $115.15 (64.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.8% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $75 to $160
  • Selected fair value: $117.65 (68.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.7% - 5.7%
Enterprise Value $14M - $18M
Net Debt $(22)M
Equity Value $36M - $41M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $115 - $130
Selected Fair Value $122.48

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $22M
Enterprise Value $-1M
Trailing P/E 5.55
Forward P/E 5.53
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.95
Current Dividend Yield 171.20%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 1.03%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.90

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $95.62
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $68.16
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $23.03
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $17.65
Earnings Power Value 10% $12.25
Weighted Average 100% $216.71

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, London Finance & Investment Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $216.71, which is approximately 209.6% above the current market price of $70.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (90% to 77% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 1.03%

Given these factors, we believe London Finance & Investment Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.