As of August 11, 2025, Centrus Energy Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $274.23 per share. With the current market price at $223.15, this represents a potential upside of 22.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $216.96 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $274.23 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 22.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $442 million in 12-2024 to $976 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 442 | 38% |
| 12-2025 | 500 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 564 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 626 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 683 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 748 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 799 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 843 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 885 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 929 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 976 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 12-2024 to 35% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 73 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 99 | 20% |
| 12-2026 | 131 | 23% |
| 12-2027 | 166 | 26% |
| 12-2028 | 202 | 30% |
| 12-2029 | 243 | 33% |
| 12-2030 | 265 | 33% |
| 12-2031 | 284 | 34% |
| 12-2032 | 303 | 34% |
| 12-2033 | 323 | 35% |
| 12-2034 | 345 | 35% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 3 |
| 12-2028 | 3 |
| 12-2029 | 3 |
| 12-2030 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 10 |
| Days Inventory | 383 |
| Days Payables | 10 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 159 | (94) |
| 2026 | 124 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 107 |
| 2027 | 159 | 4 | 3 | (41) | 192 |
| 2028 | 195 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 123 |
| 2029 | 236 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 220 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 216.96 | -2.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 274.23 | 22.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 166.13 | -25.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 220.61 | -1.1% |
Is Centrus Energy Corp (LEU) a buy or a sell? Centrus Energy Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Centrus Energy Corp (LEU) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 22.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $223.15.