As of May 22, 2025, Liberty Oilfield Services Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $21.60 per share. With the current market price at $11.30, this represents a potential upside of 91.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $17.56 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $21.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 55.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 91.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 11.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4315 million in 12-2024 to $7998 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4315 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 3930 | -9% |
| 12-2026 | 4415 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 4852 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 5309 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 5793 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 6113 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 6573 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 6974 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 7322 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 7998 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 316 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 308 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 346 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 380 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 416 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 454 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 479 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 515 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 547 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 574 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 627 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $402 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 471 |
| 12-2026 | 533 |
| 12-2027 | 554 |
| 12-2028 | 556 |
| 12-2029 | 558 |
| 12-2030 | 609 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 47 |
| Days Inventory | 24 |
| Days Payables | 2 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 617 | 44 | 339 | (15) | 249 |
| 2026 | 928 | 67 | 507 | 56 | 299 |
| 2027 | 988 | 73 | 558 | 76 | 282 |
| 2028 | 1031 | 80 | 610 | 85 | 255 |
| 2029 | 1077 | 87 | 666 | 74 | 250 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.56 | 55.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 21.60 | 91.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.76 | 48.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 20.47 | 81.2% |
Is Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT) a buy or a sell? Liberty Oilfield Services Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 91.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $11.30.