What is LAUR's Intrinsic value?

Laureate Education Inc (LAUR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Laureate Education Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $22.39 to $33.54 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $33.54 +50.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $29.27 +31.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $26.07 +16.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $26.76 +20.0%
Earnings Power Value $22.39 +0.4%

Is Laureate Education Inc (LAUR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $22.31, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Laureate Education Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.8 0.88
Cost of equity 7.5% 9.8%
Cost of debt 4.5% 9.0%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.03 0.03
After-tax WACC 7.4% 9.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,567 (FY12-2024) to $2,656 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 19% to 19%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $29 $4,369M 74.1%
10-Year Growth $34 $5,006M 56.4%
5-Year EBITDA $31 $4,696M 75.9%
10-Year EBITDA $35 $5,292M 58.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $26.07 (16.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.8% (Low) to 7.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $15 to $38
  • Selected fair value: $26.76 (20.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $281M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.7% - 7.4%
Enterprise Value $2,897M - $3,789M
Net Debt $3M
Equity Value $2,894M - $3,786M
Outstanding Shares 149M
Fair Value $19 - $25
Selected Fair Value $22.39

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3328M
Enterprise Value $3331M
Trailing P/E 11.56
Forward P/E 10.74
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.70
Current Dividend Yield 1.54%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 67.71%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.03

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $10.06
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $7.32
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $5.21
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $4.01
Earnings Power Value 10% $2.24
Weighted Average 100% $28.85

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Laureate Education Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $28.85, which is approximately 29.3% above the current market price of $22.31.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (19% to 19% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.03)
  • Historical dividend growth of 67.71%

Given these factors, we believe Laureate Education Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.