What is KWR's DCF valuation?

Quaker Chemical Corp (KWR) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, Quaker Chemical Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $259.10 per share. With the current market price at $120.57, this represents a potential upside of 114.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $205.80
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $259.10
Potential Upside (5-year) 70.7%
Potential Upside (10-year) 114.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.9% - 8.8%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $1889 million in 12-2025 to $2475 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 1889 3%
12-2026 1976 5%
12-2027 2065 5%
12-2028 2107 2%
12-2029 2149 2%
12-2030 2226 4%
12-2031 2271 2%
12-2032 2316 2%
12-2033 2362 2%
12-2034 2427 3%
12-2035 2475 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2025 to 13% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 (18) -1%
12-2026 51 3%
12-2027 99 5%
12-2028 145 7%
12-2029 191 9%
12-2030 240 11%
12-2031 253 11%
12-2032 267 12%
12-2033 280 12%
12-2034 296 12%
12-2035 311 13%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $37 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 41
12-2027 43
12-2028 44
12-2029 44
12-2030 42
12-2031 43

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 81
Days Inventory 74
Days Payables 59

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 163 19 39 3 102
2027 234 37 41 16 140
2028 299 54 42 15 188
2029 363 71 43 4 245
2030 430 89 44 16 280

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.9% - 8.8%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 2.0% - 4.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 9.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 205.80 70.7%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 259.10 114.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 143.36 18.9%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 193.55 60.5%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $4,259M
  • 10-Year Model: $5,184M

Investment Conclusion

Is Quaker Chemical Corp (KWR) a buy or a sell? Quaker Chemical Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Quaker Chemical Corp (KWR) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 114.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1% to 13%)
  • Steady revenue growth (2.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $120.57.