As of June 7, 2025, Kohls Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $13.24 per share. With the current market price at $8.75, this represents a potential upside of 51.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $9.38 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $13.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 7.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 51.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 7.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $16221 million in 02-2025 to $18958 million by 02-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 16221 | 7% |
| 02-2026 | 14709 | -9% |
| 02-2027 | 14554 | -1% |
| 02-2028 | 14735 | 1% |
| 02-2029 | 15404 | 5% |
| 02-2030 | 15712 | 2% |
| 02-2031 | 16872 | 7% |
| 02-2032 | 17831 | 6% |
| 02-2033 | 18188 | 2% |
| 02-2034 | 18552 | 2% |
| 02-2035 | 18958 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 02-2025 to 1% by 02-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 109 | 1% |
| 02-2026 | 80 | 1% |
| 02-2027 | 79 | 1% |
| 02-2028 | 80 | 1% |
| 02-2029 | 83 | 1% |
| 02-2030 | 85 | 1% |
| 02-2031 | 91 | 1% |
| 02-2032 | 96 | 1% |
| 02-2033 | 98 | 1% |
| 02-2034 | 100 | 1% |
| 02-2035 | 103 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $562 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2026 | 589 |
| 02-2027 | 560 |
| 02-2028 | 489 |
| 02-2029 | 472 |
| 02-2030 | 479 |
| 02-2031 | 493 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 104 |
| Days Payables | 40 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 736 | 18 | 352 | (276) | 642 |
| 2027 | 949 | 24 | 464 | 21 | 440 |
| 2028 | 883 | 24 | 470 | 58 | 331 |
| 2029 | 883 | 25 | 491 | 33 | 334 |
| 2030 | 898 | 25 | 501 | 46 | 326 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.38 | 7.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.24 | 51.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.40 | -61.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 8.40 | -4.0% |
Is Kohls Corp (KSS) a buy or a sell? Kohls Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Kohls Corp (KSS) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 51.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $8.75.