As of December 15, 2025, Kite Realty Group Trust's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5.24 to $39.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $10.57 | -54.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $9.66 | -58.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $5.24 | -77.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $28.70 | +23.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $39.33 | +68.5% |
Is Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $23.34, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Kite Realty Group Trust's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 8.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.3% | 9.1% |
| Tax rate | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.4% | 8.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $10 | $4,964M | 87.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $11 | $5,162M | 75.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $5 | $3,915M | 84.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $6 | $4,193M | 69.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $768M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.9% - 5.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $8,664M - $14,114M |
| Net Debt | $2,873M |
| Equity Value | $5,791M - $11,242M |
| Outstanding Shares | 217M |
| Fair Value | $27 - $52 |
| Selected Fair Value | $39.33 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $5053M |
| Enterprise Value | $7926M |
| Trailing P/E | 36.18 |
| Forward P/E | 302.94 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 13.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 465.30% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 55.33% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.64 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $3.17 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $2.41 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $1.05 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.31 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.93 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $14.87 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Kite Realty Group Trust's intrinsic value is $14.87, which is approximately 36.3% below the current market price of $23.34.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Kite Realty Group Trust is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.