As of June 23, 2025, Kino Polska TV SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $37.02 per share. With the current market price at $17.50, this represents a potential upside of 111.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $32.49 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $37.02 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 85.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 111.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% - 13.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $315 million in 12-2024 to $494 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 315 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 320 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 331 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 337 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 348 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 378 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 387 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 402 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 438 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 461 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 494 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 21% in 12-2024 to 22% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 67 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 70 | 22% |
| 12-2026 | 72 | 22% |
| 12-2027 | 74 | 22% |
| 12-2028 | 76 | 22% |
| 12-2029 | 82 | 22% |
| 12-2030 | 84 | 22% |
| 12-2031 | 88 | 22% |
| 12-2032 | 96 | 22% |
| 12-2033 | 101 | 22% |
| 12-2034 | 108 | 22% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 6 |
| 12-2027 | 6 |
| 12-2028 | 7 |
| 12-2029 | 7 |
| 12-2030 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 122 |
| Days Inventory | 2,647 |
| Days Payables | 7,560 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 71 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 39 |
| 2026 | 97 | 19 | 6 | (1) | 73 |
| 2027 | 99 | 19 | 7 | (1) | 75 |
| 2028 | 103 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 70 |
| 2029 | 111 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 75 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 32.49 | 85.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 37.02 | 111.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 29.35 | 67.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 35.17 | 101.0% |
Is Kino Polska TV SA (KPL.WA) a buy or a sell? Kino Polska TV SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Kino Polska TV SA (KPL.WA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 111.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $17.50.