What is KOM.WA's Intrinsic value?

Komputronik SA (KOM.WA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 7, 2025, Komputronik SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $34.60 to $229.87 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $229.87 +3491.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $189.99 +2868.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $117.54 +1736.6%
Earnings Power Value $34.60 +440.6%

Is Komputronik SA (KOM.WA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $6.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Komputronik SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 5.5% 6.0%
Equity market risk premium 6.3% 7.3%
Adjusted beta 0.39 0.46
Cost of equity 8.0% 9.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 6.9% 16.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.48 0.48
After-tax WACC 6.6% 8.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,635 (FY03-2024) to $2,115 (FY03-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 0% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $190 $1,857M 82.7%
10-Year Growth $230 $2,247M 64.7%
5-Year EBITDA $77 $750M 57.2%
10-Year EBITDA $123 $1,197M 33.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $117.54 (1736.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.9% (Low) to 8.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(8) to $(18)
  • Selected fair value: $-12.84 (-300.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $25M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.6% - 6.6%
Enterprise Value $292M - $379M
Net Debt $(3)M
Equity Value $296M - $382M
Outstanding Shares 10M
Fair Value $30 - $39
Selected Fair Value $34.60

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $63M
Enterprise Value $59M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 2.77
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.15
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.48

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $68.96
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $47.50
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $23.51
Earnings Power Value 12% $3.46
Weighted Average 100% $168.74

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Komputronik SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $168.74, which is approximately 2536.5% above the current market price of $6.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (0% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Komputronik SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.