What is KO's Intrinsic value?

Coca-Cola Co (KO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 30, 2026, Coca-Cola Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $32.23 to $103.25 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $103.25 +30.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $90.22 +14.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $86.88 +10.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $94.95 +20.4%
Earnings Power Value $32.23 -59.1%

Is Coca-Cola Co (KO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $78.87, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Coca-Cola Co's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.42 0.51
Cost of equity 5.8% 7.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 18.0% 18.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.14 0.14
After-tax WACC 5.6% 7.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $47,941 (FY12-2025) to $85,452 (FY12-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 27% to 30%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $90 $423,527M 84.4%
10-Year Growth $103 $479,628M 72.7%
5-Year EBITDA $59 $289,369M 77.1%
10-Year EBITDA $72 $346,259M 62.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 67.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $86.88 (10.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.7% (Low) to 5.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $37 to $153
  • Selected fair value: $94.95 (20.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $10,997M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.3% - 5.6%
Enterprise Value $151,141M - $196,718M
Net Debt $35,222M
Equity Value $115,919M - $161,496M
Outstanding Shares 4,304M
Fair Value $27 - $38
Selected Fair Value $32.23

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $339468M
Enterprise Value $374690M
Trailing P/E 25.90
Forward P/E 24.10
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.10
Current Dividend Yield 266.17%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 4.89%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.14

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $30.98
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $22.55
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $17.38
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $14.24
Earnings Power Value 10% $3.22
Weighted Average 100% $88.37

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Coca-Cola Co's intrinsic value is $88.37, which is approximately 12.0% above the current market price of $78.87.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (27% to 30% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.14)
  • Historical dividend growth of 4.89%

Given these factors, we believe Coca-Cola Co is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.