What is KO's DCF valuation?

Coca-Cola Co (KO) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 3, 2026, Coca-Cola Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $107.18 per share. With the current market price at $76.72, this represents a potential upside of 39.7%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $93.64
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $107.18
Potential Upside (5-year) 22.1%
Potential Upside (10-year) 39.7%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.6% - 7.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $47941 million in 12-2025 to $85452 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.0%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 47941 2%
12-2026 50374 5%
12-2027 53297 6%
12-2028 58280 9%
12-2029 62469 7%
12-2030 65370 5%
12-2031 69202 6%
12-2032 73575 6%
12-2033 76133 3%
12-2034 79005 4%
12-2035 85452 8%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 27% in 12-2025 to 30% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 13137 27%
12-2026 14084 28%
12-2027 15230 29%
12-2028 17006 29%
12-2029 18597 30%
12-2030 19840 30%
12-2031 21003 30%
12-2032 22330 30%
12-2033 23107 30%
12-2034 23978 30%
12-2035 25935 30%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $1776 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 1902
12-2027 2028
12-2028 2120
12-2029 2202
12-2030 2298
12-2031 2447

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 26
Days Inventory 90
Days Payables 73

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 17876 3112 1997 (3,008) 15774
2027 19330 3366 2113 894 12958
2028 21469 3758 2311 1213 14188
2029 23394 4110 2477 (350) 17157
2030 24936 4384 2592 505 17455

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.6% - 7.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 2.0% - 4.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 12.4x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 93.64 22.1%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 107.18 39.7%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 56.43 -26.5%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 70.12 -8.6%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $437,938M
  • 10-Year Model: $496,161M

Investment Conclusion

Is Coca-Cola Co (KO) a buy or a sell? Coca-Cola Co is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Coca-Cola Co (KO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 39.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 27% to 30%)
  • Steady revenue growth (6.0% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $76.72.