As of June 8, 2025, Knowit AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $103.04 per share. With the current market price at $132.00, this represents a potential upside of -21.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $114.19 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $103.04 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -13.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -21.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6416 million in 12-2024 to $9020 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 6416 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 5788 | -10% |
| 12-2026 | 6215 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 6467 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 6596 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 6924 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 7063 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 7622 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 8016 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 8252 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 9020 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2024 to 2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 111 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 110 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 118 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 123 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 125 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 132 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 134 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 145 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 152 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 157 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 171 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $34 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 38 |
| 12-2026 | 42 |
| 12-2027 | 35 |
| 12-2028 | 32 |
| 12-2029 | 35 |
| 12-2030 | 36 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 72 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 81 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 161 | 21 | 24 | 65 | 51 |
| 2026 | 232 | 30 | 34 | 29 | 140 |
| 2027 | 232 | 32 | 35 | (3) | 168 |
| 2028 | 234 | 32 | 36 | 53 | 113 |
| 2029 | 246 | 34 | 38 | 32 | 143 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 114.19 | -13.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 103.04 | -21.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 48.54 | -63.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 60.10 | -54.5% |
Is Knowit AB (publ) (KNOW.ST) a buy or a sell? Knowit AB (publ) is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Knowit AB (publ) (KNOW.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -21.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $132.00.