As of May 22, 2025, Kingfisher PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $249.04 per share. With the current market price at $309.90, this represents a potential upside of -19.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $228.14 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $249.04 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -26.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -19.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $12784 million in 01-2025 to $18096 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 12784 | 2% |
| 01-2026 | 13453 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 13966 | 4% |
| 01-2028 | 14616 | 5% |
| 01-2029 | 14908 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 15506 | 4% |
| 01-2031 | 15867 | 2% |
| 01-2032 | 16512 | 4% |
| 01-2033 | 17211 | 4% |
| 01-2034 | 17741 | 3% |
| 01-2035 | 18096 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 01-2025 to 2% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 185 | 1% |
| 01-2026 | 249 | 2% |
| 01-2027 | 259 | 2% |
| 01-2028 | 271 | 2% |
| 01-2029 | 276 | 2% |
| 01-2030 | 287 | 2% |
| 01-2031 | 294 | 2% |
| 01-2032 | 306 | 2% |
| 01-2033 | 319 | 2% |
| 01-2034 | 328 | 2% |
| 01-2035 | 335 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $367 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 387 |
| 01-2027 | 385 |
| 01-2028 | 377 |
| 01-2029 | 388 |
| 01-2030 | 412 |
| 01-2031 | 426 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 2 |
| Days Inventory | 130 |
| Days Payables | 55 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 839 | 74 | 383 | 182 | 200 |
| 2027 | 854 | 77 | 397 | 38 | 341 |
| 2028 | 867 | 80 | 416 | 73 | 299 |
| 2029 | 889 | 82 | 424 | 59 | 324 |
| 2030 | 933 | 85 | 441 | 70 | 336 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 228.14 | -26.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 249.04 | -19.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 145.80 | -53.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 172.67 | -44.3% |
Is Kingfisher PLC (KGF.L) a buy or a sell? Kingfisher PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Kingfisher PLC (KGF.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -19.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $309.90.