As of June 21, 2025, Kemira Oyj has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $27.72 per share. With the current market price at $19.46, this represents a potential upside of 42.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $25.96 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $27.72 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 33.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 42.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 8.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2948 million in 12-2024 to $3549 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2948 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 2738 | -7% |
| 12-2026 | 2792 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2852 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 3043 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 3154 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 3217 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 3281 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 3348 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 3480 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 3549 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 9% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 263 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 243 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 248 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 253 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 270 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 280 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 285 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 291 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 297 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 309 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 315 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $187 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 182 |
| 12-2026 | 184 |
| 12-2027 | 181 |
| 12-2028 | 178 |
| 12-2029 | 185 |
| 12-2030 | 191 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 43 |
| Days Inventory | 60 |
| Days Payables | 45 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 386 | 52 | 130 | (17) | 221 |
| 2026 | 523 | 71 | 177 | (8) | 284 |
| 2027 | 527 | 72 | 180 | 17 | 258 |
| 2028 | 548 | 77 | 193 | 27 | 251 |
| 2029 | 568 | 80 | 200 | 13 | 276 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 25.96 | 33.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 27.72 | 42.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 20.23 | 4.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.72 | 16.7% |
Is Kemira Oyj (KEMIRA.HE) a buy or a sell? Kemira Oyj is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Kemira Oyj (KEMIRA.HE) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 42.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $19.46.