As of June 8, 2025, Kin and Carta PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $76.69 per share. With the current market price at $129.60, this represents a potential upside of -40.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $76.69 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -132.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -40.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $192 million in 07-2023 to $329 million by 07-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2023 | 192 | 1% |
| 07-2024 | 199 | 4% |
| 07-2025 | 226 | 13% |
| 07-2026 | 233 | 3% |
| 07-2027 | 240 | 3% |
| 07-2028 | 258 | 7% |
| 07-2029 | 277 | 7% |
| 07-2030 | 287 | 4% |
| 07-2031 | 307 | 7% |
| 07-2032 | 322 | 5% |
| 07-2033 | 329 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -10% in 07-2023 to 3% by 07-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2023 | (19) | -10% |
| 07-2024 | (15) | -7% |
| 07-2025 | (11) | -5% |
| 07-2026 | (6) | -3% |
| 07-2027 | (1) | -1% |
| 07-2028 | 4 | 1% |
| 07-2029 | 5 | 2% |
| 07-2030 | 6 | 2% |
| 07-2031 | 8 | 3% |
| 07-2032 | 10 | 3% |
| 07-2033 | 11 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 07-2024 | 2 |
| 07-2025 | 2 |
| 07-2026 | 2 |
| 07-2027 | 3 |
| 07-2028 | 3 |
| 07-2029 | 3 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 79 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 15 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | (12) | (1) | 2 | 14 | (27) |
| 2025 | (7) | (1) | 3 | 4 | (13) |
| 2026 | (2) | (1) | 3 | (2) | (2) |
| 2027 | 4 | (0) | 3 | 5 | (3) |
| 2028 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -132.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 76.69 | -40.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Kin and Carta PLC (KCT.L) a buy or a sell? Kin and Carta PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Kin and Carta PLC (KCT.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -40.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $129.60.