As of May 22, 2025, Kaz Minerals PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $294.57 to $1321.48 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1321.48 | +55.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1146.46 | +35.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $609.17 | -28.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $1307.32 | +54.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $294.57 | -65.3% |
Is Kaz Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $849.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Kaz Minerals PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.69 | 1.98 |
| Cost of equity | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| Tax rate | 20.5% | 20.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.3% | 11.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1,396 | $9,623M | 63.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,609 | $10,630M | 42.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1,498 | $10,108M | 65.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,742 | $11,259M | 46.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $453M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 11.4% - 8.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,987M - $5,455M |
| Net Debt | $3,026M |
| Equity Value | $961M - $2,429M |
| Outstanding Shares | 5M |
| Fair Value | $203 - $514 |
| Selected Fair Value | $294.57 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4013M |
| Enterprise Value | $6291M |
| Trailing P/E | 4.40 |
| Forward P/E | 7.97 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 212.87% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.80 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $396.45 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $286.62 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $121.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $196.10 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $29.46 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1030.45 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Kaz Minerals PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1030.45, which is approximately 21.4% above the current market price of $849.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Kaz Minerals PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.