As of May 22, 2025, Kaz Minerals PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $849.00, this represents a potential upside of 55.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 35.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 55.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.3% - 11.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2355 million in 12-2020 to $3718 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 2355 | 4% |
| 12-2021 | 2466 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 2557 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 2650 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 2784 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 2839 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 2896 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 3033 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 3323 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 3556 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 3718 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 27% in 12-2020 to 27% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 639 | 27% |
| 12-2021 | 669 | 27% |
| 12-2022 | 693 | 27% |
| 12-2023 | 719 | 27% |
| 12-2024 | 755 | 27% |
| 12-2025 | 770 | 27% |
| 12-2026 | 785 | 27% |
| 12-2027 | 823 | 27% |
| 12-2028 | 901 | 27% |
| 12-2029 | 964 | 27% |
| 12-2030 | 1008 | 27% |
with a 5-year average of $494 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 27% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 572 |
| 12-2022 | 683 |
| 12-2023 | 703 |
| 12-2024 | 681 |
| 12-2025 | 718 |
| 12-2026 | 741 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 23 |
| Days Inventory | 176 |
| Days Payables | 25 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1620 | 173 | 666 | (65) | 846 |
| 2022 | 1769 | 179 | 690 | 77 | 822 |
| 2023 | 1828 | 186 | 715 | 24 | 903 |
| 2024 | 1863 | 195 | 751 | 19 | 897 |
| 2025 | 1923 | 199 | 766 | 28 | 930 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 35.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 55.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1128.01 | 32.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1311.44 | 54.5% |
Is Kaz Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) a buy or a sell? Kaz Minerals PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Kaz Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 55.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $849.00.