As of June 17, 2025, Kardex Holding AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $124.40 to $260.36 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $260.36 | -2.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $209.32 | -21.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $199.74 | -25.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $220.83 | -17.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $124.40 | -53.4% |
Is Kardex Holding AG (KARN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $267.00, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Kardex Holding AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.9 | 0.97 |
| Cost of equity | 5.6% | 7.9% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 23.7% | 25.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.6% | 7.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $223 | $1,590M | 80.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $278 | $2,011M | 67.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $245 | $1,757M | 82.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $303 | $2,206M | 70.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $58M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.9% - 5.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $735M - $1,045M |
| Net Debt | $(136)M |
| Equity Value | $871M - $1,181M |
| Outstanding Shares | 8M |
| Fair Value | $113 - $153 |
| Selected Fair Value | $124.40 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2064M |
| Enterprise Value | $1936M |
| Trailing P/E | 27.29 |
| Forward P/E | 26.79 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 13.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 181.65% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.77% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $78.11 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $52.33 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $39.95 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $33.12 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $12.44 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $215.95 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Kardex Holding AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $215.95, which is approximately 19.1% below the current market price of $267.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Kardex Holding AG is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.