What is JUVE.MI's Intrinsic value?

Juventus FC SpA (JUVE.MI) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Juventus FC SpA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.24 to $2.24 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $2.24 -0.0%

Is Juventus FC SpA (JUVE.MI) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.24, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Juventus FC SpA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.7% 4.2%
Equity market risk premium 8.3% 9.3%
Adjusted beta 0.35 0.45
Cost of equity 6.6% 8.8%
Cost of debt 4.4% 5.1%
Tax rate 1.3% 3.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.36 0.36
After-tax WACC 6.0% 7.8%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $84M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 6.0%
Enterprise Value $1,070M - $1,400M
Net Debt $303M
Equity Value $768M - $1,097M
Outstanding Shares 417M
Fair Value $2 - $3
Selected Fair Value $2.24

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $932M
Enterprise Value $1235M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.25
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.36

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.22
Weighted Average 100% $2.24

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Juventus FC SpA's intrinsic value is $2.24, which is approximately 0.0% below the current market price of $2.24.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-11% to -7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Juventus FC SpA is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.