As of May 27, 2025, Jungheinrich AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $18.41 to $48.68 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $25.71 | -27.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $18.41 | -47.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $29.45 | -16.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $31.26 | -11.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $48.68 | +38.1% |
Is Jungheinrich AG (JUN3.DE) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $35.26, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Jungheinrich AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| Cost of equity | 8.3% | 11.3% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 24.0% | 25.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.4% | 8.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $18 | $4,151M | 74.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $26 | $4,899M | 61.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $15 | $3,826M | 72.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $22 | $4,504M | 58.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $517M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.1% - 6.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $6,414M - $8,088M |
| Net Debt | $2,266M |
| Equity Value | $4,149M - $5,822M |
| Outstanding Shares | 102M |
| Fair Value | $41 - $57 |
| Selected Fair Value | $48.68 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3611M |
| Enterprise Value | $5877M |
| Trailing P/E | 13.42 |
| Forward P/E | 13.17 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 386.11% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 8.14% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.74 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $7.71 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.60 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $5.89 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.69 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $4.87 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $27.76 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Jungheinrich AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $27.76, which is approximately 21.3% below the current market price of $35.26.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Jungheinrich AG is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.