What is JPM's Intrinsic value?

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 15, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $315.05 to $345.02 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $345.02 +15.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $315.05 +5.0%

Is JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $299.91, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate JPMorgan Chase & Co's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.77 0.81
Cost of equity 7.4% 9.4%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 19.3% 20.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.14 1.14
After-tax WACC 5.6% 6.5%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 28.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $345.02 (15.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.4% (Low) to 7.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $183 to $447
  • Selected fair value: $315.05 (5.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $804425M
Enterprise Value $2037865M
Trailing P/E 13.66
Forward P/E 12.96
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 205.17%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 6.63%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.14

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $69.00
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $47.26
Weighted Average 100% $332.18

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, JPMorgan Chase & Co's intrinsic value is $332.18, which is approximately 10.8% above the current market price of $299.91.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 6.63%

Given these factors, we believe JPMorgan Chase & Co is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.