As of May 24, 2025, Joules Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $840.33 per share. With the current market price at $9.22, this represents a potential upside of 9014.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $296.37 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $840.33 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 3114.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 9014.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.9% - 5.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $199 million in 05-2021 to $725 million by 05-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2021 | 199 | 4% |
| 05-2022 | 277 | 39% |
| 05-2023 | 314 | 13% |
| 05-2024 | 343 | 9% |
| 05-2025 | 401 | 17% |
| 05-2026 | 459 | 15% |
| 05-2027 | 508 | 11% |
| 05-2028 | 562 | 10% |
| 05-2029 | 619 | 10% |
| 05-2030 | 673 | 9% |
| 05-2031 | 725 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 05-2021 to 5% by 05-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2021 | 1 | 0% |
| 05-2022 | 4 | 2% |
| 05-2023 | 7 | 2% |
| 05-2024 | 11 | 3% |
| 05-2025 | 15 | 4% |
| 05-2026 | 21 | 5% |
| 05-2027 | 23 | 5% |
| 05-2028 | 26 | 5% |
| 05-2029 | 28 | 5% |
| 05-2030 | 31 | 5% |
| 05-2031 | 33 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $13 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 05-2022 | 15 |
| 05-2023 | 16 |
| 05-2024 | 19 |
| 05-2025 | 22 |
| 05-2026 | 25 |
| 05-2027 | 29 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 142 |
| Days Payables | 78 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | (1) |
| 2023 | 28 | 2 | 22 | 7 | (3) |
| 2024 | 35 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 3 |
| 2025 | 45 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 7 |
| 2026 | 56 | 6 | 32 | 8 | 10 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 296.37 | 3114.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 840.33 | 9014.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 118.27 | 1182.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 242.30 | 2528.0% |
Is Joules Group PLC (JOUL.L) a buy or a sell? Joules Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Joules Group PLC (JOUL.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 9014.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $9.22.