As of June 17, 2025, Jungfraubahn Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $370.26 per share. With the current market price at $200.50, this represents a potential upside of 84.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $258.04 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $370.26 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 28.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 84.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.1% - 6.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $284 million in 12-2024 to $479 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 284 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 298 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 321 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 339 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 360 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 375 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 398 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 415 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 437 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 460 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 479 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 27% in 12-2024 to 27% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 76 | 27% |
| 12-2025 | 80 | 27% |
| 12-2026 | 87 | 27% |
| 12-2027 | 92 | 27% |
| 12-2028 | 97 | 27% |
| 12-2029 | 101 | 27% |
| 12-2030 | 107 | 27% |
| 12-2031 | 112 | 27% |
| 12-2032 | 118 | 27% |
| 12-2033 | 124 | 27% |
| 12-2034 | 129 | 27% |
with a 5-year average of $60 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 40% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 59 |
| 12-2026 | 72 |
| 12-2027 | 93 |
| 12-2028 | 114 |
| 12-2029 | 135 |
| 12-2030 | 143 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 43 |
| Days Inventory | 93 |
| Days Payables | 976 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 159 | 21 | 119 | (12) | 32 |
| 2026 | 180 | 22 | 128 | 3 | 26 |
| 2027 | 207 | 24 | 135 | 1 | 47 |
| 2028 | 235 | 25 | 144 | (3) | 70 |
| 2029 | 261 | 26 | 150 | 1 | 84 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 258.04 | 28.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 370.26 | 84.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 173.96 | -13.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 243.12 | 21.3% |
Is Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN.SW) a buy or a sell? Jungfraubahn Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 84.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $200.50.